Want to be ready for winter in Windsor-Essex? Then keep your gloves, shovels, and ice scrapers handy. The Weather Network is predicting colder and snowier conditions than normal for our region in the coming months.
“You guys will fall under what we’re expecting to be above-normal precipitation,” said Brad Rousseau, a meteorologist for The Weather Network. “We’re expecting an active storm track into the Great Lakes basin.”
The Weather Network released its national outlook for Winter 2017-18 on Monday, forecasting a “classic Canadian winter” in Ontario and Quebec — with above-average snowfall across the central and southern regions.
Rousseau said Windsor-Essex typically sees 96 centimetres of total snowfall over the months of December, January and February, with daily highs averaging out to just under 1 C (34 F) and lows averaging to -6 C (21 F).
“Temperature-wise, we’re expecting it should be near to maybe just below the seasonal mark,” Rousseau said.
Before you complain, let’s appreciate that even when we get more snow than usual, Windsor-Essex still has some of the lightest winters in Canada.
In London, for example — just a two-hour drive away — the typical total snowfall over the same three-month period is 135 cm, with an average high of -0.5 C (31 F) and an average low of -8 C (17.6 F).
However, sometimes being further south works against us. “Even though we’re expecting above-normal snowfall, you still could see a fair amount of rain — and potentially a few freezing rain events,” Rousseau advised.
A pair of walkers endure the cold to get some exercise on Windsor’s Riverfront trails on Nov. 10, 2017.
The good news is that there should be a bit of a reprieve mid-winter. Rousseau said most of Ontario including Windsor will see a thaw period around late January to early February, followed by a winter comeback.
“I have my doubts it will be as warm as spring, but there will be a period where we’re trending above seasonal,” Rousseau promised. “Then we’ll have another shot of below-seasonal, and another active storm period.”
Of course, there’s a scientific explanation for all this prognostication. The Weather Network foresees the phenomenon known as La Nina this winter — i.e., cooler than average water temperatures in central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean. It’s the cold counterpart to El Nino.
Hallmarks of La Nina include harsher winters for Canada’s western provinces and sometimes Ontario, along with wetter conditions on the west coast and near the Great Lakes.
“The tricky thing with La Nina is there’s no specific pattern that locks in for a long period of time. You’ll get a period of cold, balanced out with a period of warmth, and so on,” Rousseau said.
But let’s be real: With months of winter weather ahead of us, what Windsorites really want to know is when we’ll be able to wear shorts again.
“That’s a difficult question to answer this far out,” Rousseau admitted. “Given the fact that we expect winter to end off cooler and stormier, we could see it linger into March. But I can’t say with any confidence what to expect, length-wise.”
